KEY FINDINGS
- Consistent with results from congressional districts nationwide, Democrats lead in the national generic ballot for congress by 6 percentage points. In recent history, a Democratic lead 4.5 to 5 percentage points in this national popular reading has been sufficient for the party to gain seats. Note, the Democrats need only a pickup of a net 3 seats to win a majority in the House of Representative.
- Democrats hold leads among most key sub-groups displayed in charts below, except white voters, parents of young children at home, and rural voters. Their margin appears to be especially fueled by solid support among Democrats, independents, Hispanics, Blacks, those with college degrees, residents of cities and suburbs, and younger voters.
- Democrats slightly benefit regarding strength of support for their candidate with 78% citing strong support vs. 74% of Republicans.
- Not surprisingly, and consistent with pre-election surveys, the issue of inflation and affordability dominates as the major driver for voters with about half citing it as their top issue. Healthcare and immigration come in as second and third most cited issues that will determine how voters cast their vote.
- The President has campaigned to remind supporters that he is on the ballot. While not technically true, if the race for a majority of Congress is seen as a referendum on Mr. Trump, then he appears to be losing this round.
- Of the 5 top cited issues, when asked which party is more likely to deliver on each, Democrats were seen as better on affordability, healthcare, and diplomacy/foreign policy. Republicans lead on immigration and crime.
- The poll was conducted online by John Zogby Strategies from November 1-2, 2026 among 1,001 likely voters/already voted and has an overall margin-of-sampling error of +/-3.2 percentage points.
Pollster Jeremy Zogby: In the final analysis, both parties had a long list of advantages and disadvantages going into the race, but in the end it appears to come down to the electorate’s preference for a check on the Executive branch and a vote of no confidence regarding the MAGA agenda.
Click HERE for crosstabs
Congressional Generic Ballot Overall & Demographic Results
If the election were today, which candidate would you vote for in your district?
| Democrat | Republican | |
| Overall | 53% | 47% |
| Independents | 61% | 39% |
| Democrats | 95% | 5% |
| Republicans | 96% | 4% |
| Men | 51% | 49% |
| Women | 56% | 44% |
| White | 49% | 51% |
| Hispanic | 54% | 46% |
| Black | 77% | 24% |
| 18 – 29 | 70% | 30% |
| 30 – 44 | 53% | 47% |
| 45 – 64 | 50% | 50% |
| 65+ | 51% | 49% |
| College Degree | 57% | 43% |
| No College Degree | 51% | 50% |
| Large city | 55% | 45% |
| Small city | 59% | 41% |
| Suburbs | 55% | 45% |
| Rural | 43% | 58% |
| Union | 52% | 48% |
| Veteran | 50% | 51% |
| Parent w/ Young | 46% | 54% |
*Percentages are rounded and therefore do not always add up to 100
Strength of Vote for Candidate
| Strongly in Favor | Somewhat in Favor | |
| Democrat | 78% | 22% |
| Republican | 74% | 26% |
Top Deciding Voter Issues
| %
Cited by Voters |
|
| 1. Inflation/Cost of living | 49% |
| 2. Healthcare | 26% |
| 3. Immigration/the border | 22% |
| 4. Taxes and budget | 18% |
| 5. Crime and safety | 14% |
| 6. The Iran war | 13% |
| 7. Tariffs | 11% |
| 8. Epstein files | 11% |
*Only lists issues cited 10% or higher
President’s Approval Rating – Overall Job & Signature Issues
| Approve | Disapprove | Net | |
| Job as President | 43% | 55% | -12 |
| Handling Immigration | 49% | 46% | +3 |
| Handling Crime | 46% | 48% | -2 |
| Handling economy | 37% | 58% | -21 |
| War in Iran | 35% | 60% | -25 |
Party Expected to Deliver on Top Issues
| Democrats | Republicans | Neither | |
| Affordability | 45% | 30% | 18% |
| Healthcare | 44% | 32% | 18% |
| Immigration | 37% | 41% | 15% |
| Crime | 34% | 42% | 15% |
| Diplomacy/Foreign Policy | 42% | 40% | 11% |
