By Jeremy Zogby, Managing Partner, John Zogby Strategies
A recent poll by internationally known independent polling firm John Zogby Strategies and Dynata – the world’s largest data provider – surveyed 852 Independent likely voters. The following article dissects the comprehensive poll to reveal who Independent voters are.
Additionally, media pundits often wonder how voters can remain on the fence. The data below seeks to answer this commonly echoed sentiment.
How Independents Typically Vote
|
Independents |
Always Republican |
11% |
Usually Republican |
22% |
About equally Dem/Rep |
25% |
Usually Democrat |
22% |
Always Democrat |
12% |
Don’t generally vote for either |
8% |
The true swing voters here represent 25% of the Independent vote. It is also important to highlight that 8% generally don’t vote either way – translated only when it matters, or there is someone they like. They can be viewed as a less frequent camp of the true swing vote.
Biden/Trump Favorable Ratings
|
Independents |
Biden Unfavorable |
60% |
Trump Unfavorable |
62% |
Independent voters intensely dislike the two most popular political figures.
Even looking at gender – there isn’t a major difference between men and women regarding their dislike of Biden and Trump (62% and 58% – of men/women dislike Biden vs. 55% and 65% – of men/women dislike Trump).
A second look at these numbers reveals a 7 percentage points higher dislike for Trump among women – but on the flip side, men reveal 7 percentage points higher in their dislike for Biden. Therefore, it’s canceled out.
Top 2 Issues for Independent Voters out of a list of 10
|
Independents |
Inflation/econ |
56% |
Abortion |
30% |
Immigration |
21% |
Crime/Safety |
20% |
Climate change |
18% |
Inflation/economy are by far at the top of the list. Note that abortion’s slight lead over immigration (worded in the survey as abortion/reproductive rights, immigration policy/border security, crime and public safety, and climate change) shows that they are equally important. But none come close to inflation and the economy.
Note that inflation reaches a level of intensity similar to the unfavorable ratings among Biden and Trump.
Roe v. Wade’s Overturning as a Motivation to Vote
|
Independents |
More likely to vote as a result |
34% |
Has made no difference |
60% |
As a numbers guy, I can’t help but notice that 60% again – that is – Independents who say the June ruling has made no difference in getting them out to vote. In other words, they are either fine with the ruling, and/or it does not weigh how they will vote come November.
Just a recap – about 60% dislike Biden and Trump, about 60% say inflation is the top concern, and 60% say the landmark Supreme Court ruling on abortion does not motivate them to vote.
Does that 34% who say it impacts their vote in November have the momentum to swing the race? It is one of the million-dollar questions.
Which party handles better the following issues according to Independents?
|
Dems |
Reps |
Abortion |
X |
|
Immigration |
|
X |
Inflation/economy |
|
X |
Climate change |
X |
|
Crime & public safety |
|
X |
Guns |
|
X |
Energy |
X |
|
Race relations |
X |
|
Covid Mandates |
X |
|
Healthcare |
X |
|
American dream |
|
X |
International relations |
|
X |
Education |
X |
|
Note – on a couple of the issues, there were virtual ties. It’s hard to say who has the edge, but if one were to consider more X’s, Democrats win, but if others are to consult the top issues chart above – Republicans have the edge among independent voters.
More likely to vote for a candidate that…
|
Independents |
Supports reinstating Roe v. Wade |
54% |
Supports reinstating Keystone Pipeline |
55% |
Supports tougher ban on automatic guns |
55% |
Supports legislation with tougher border security |
57% |
These are the highest-scoring issues in this question format. Looking at the top two scoring issues for both parties – the numbers above appear to cancel out any clear advantage. The border security legislation seems to win the day, but this is within the margin of error, so technically, all 4 issues are virtually tied.
Which party is more likely to save our nation?
|
Independents |
Democrats |
19% |
Republicans |
24% |
Neither |
47% |
Now we’re starting to get a little bit clearer of a picture. Not so much that Independents believe Republicans are slightly more likely to save this nation than Democrats, but that half say neither party is likely to save our nation.
What about the flip side of the question?
Which party is more likely to ruin our nation?
|
Independents |
Democrats |
41% |
Republicans |
32% |
Neither |
13% |
Republicans have a slight advantage among Independents, but not by much.
It’ll be revealing to review our true swing voters – the 25% of Independents from Table 1 who say they vote equally Democrat and Republican (n= 217).
Highlights from the true swing voters (n= 217)
- 66% of the true swing voters say inflation and the economy is the top issue that will impact how they vote vs. 22% who say abortion (the second highest rated issue).
- 36% of this group say overturning Roe v. Wade has impacted their motivation to vote, vs. 58% who say it has had no impact.
- On which party handles issues better – true swing voters say Democrats handle better Covid mandates, education, abortion, climate change, race relation, and healthcare. Republicans handle better inflation, crime, public safety, energy, the American dream, immigration, and international relations. On guns, there is a tie—6 key issues go to Democrats and 6 to Republicans. However, Republicans have in the bag more issues that are top-ranked.
- On questions “more likely to vote for a candidate who supports….” – 60% of these truly swing voters say they’d be more likely to vote for a candidate that wants to reinstate the Keystone pipeline. 70% say they are more likely to vote for a candidate that calls for tougher border security. Still, 59% say they’re more likely to vote for a candidate that supports tougher legislation on automatic firearms. And 45% are more likely to vote for the candidate that wants to reinstate Roe v. Wade.
- It becomes clear that among this vital group, Republicans have a noticeable advantage.
- It all comes down to the 5 key battleground states we’ll be polling very soon to see which way the wind blows among Independent and true swing voters.
In the final analysis, let’s consider some important concluding data.
- In the Generic Congressional ballot question – 39% of Independent voters were undecided (note: poll is from early September). 29% say Democrat, and 27% say, Republican – a virtual tie.
- Among the true swing voters – 56% were undecided, 21% said Democrat, and 19% said, Republican. Again, a complete toss-up.
- To bring full circle – why Independent voters are on the fence – is because they have no home. Especially today more than ever, as the numbers confirm they dislike the current crop of politicians from both parties.
- Roughly half (47%) of Independents say neither party is likely to save our nation. And 51% of true swing voters concur.
Stay tuned for our battleground state poll of Independent voters. We are aiming for release on November 1 or 2.
Thanks for the numbers, Jeremy.
My greatest fear continues to be Trump supporters who will tolerate his lies despite the facts from the Jan. 6 House investigation. The constitution is literally “hanging by a thread,” as outgoing Arizona speaker Rusty Bowers told Anderson Cooper. If Trump-minded candidates win a majority in November, the country is in for a long dark winter of authoritarianism.
Your issue list omits protecting democracy or elections. You have one question that is somewhat on that topic: 45% of all respondents said they would be much less likely to vote for a candidate who questioned the legitimacy of the 2020 election. Protecting democracy and elections is an important issue, so leaving it out would appear to compromise the validity of your conclusions.
see my previous news article on the site that already delved into a question on who is the real threat to democracy. this question I designed goes beyond the typical top issues question that lately has included “survival of our democracy”. the data will surprise you.