New Unite NY/John Zogby Strategies Poll
In a series of stunning new findings, a Unite NY/John Zogby Strategies poll finds GOP insurgent candidate Andrew Giuliani, son of former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, widening his lead over Rep. Lee Zeldin in the party’s gubernatorial primary on June 28. Zeldin received the New York State Republican Committee’s official endorsement in March. Giuliani is ahead 35% to 25% over Zeldin, with 2014 nominee Rob Astorino competitive at 17%, Upstate millionaire Harry Wilson who is funding his campaign at 12%, and 11% still undecided.
This is the fourth in a series of monthly polls by Unite NY and John Zogby Strategies, closely tracking voter sentiment on the horse races and the atmosphere for political reform in the state. The poll of 1,007 likely voters statewide was conducted online May 18-22 and has an overall margin of sampling error of +/-3.2 percentage points. The 408 likely GOP primary voters poll has a margin-of-sampling error of +/-5.0 percentage points.
In a state where insurgents in primaries often defeat officially-designated candidates, Giuliani’s lead is defined by strong support over Zeldin among self-defined “very conservative” GOP voters (41%-31%), voters in New York City (51%-13%), in New York City suburbs (36%-30%), 18-29-year-olds (51% to Wilson’s 18%), 30-49year-olds (36%-29%), 50-64-year-olds (40%-24%), men (37%-24%) and women (32%-27%).
The race for the Republican nomination for Governor is far from over, but both Zeldin and Wilson have carpeted the television airwaves so the campaign is in earnest. Giuliani has recently campaigned with his father, “America’s Mayor,” after 9-11 and is a strong backer of former President Donald Trump.
In other findings, Governor Kathy Hochul continues to post a high approval rating (58%) with 38% disapproving. She leads all of her potential Republican challengers by double-digits and is polling well over 50%. None of the challengers reaches 40% in those matchups.
Following the resignation of her former Lieutenant Governor Brian Benjamin on corruption charges, the Governor has nominated Rep. Antonio Delgado to both fill that position and serve as her running mate in the election. It looks like she has made a wise decision: overall, 34% say that the choice of Delgado will make them more likely to support Hochul’s election, 17% less likely, and 42% say it will make no difference. However, 54% of Hispanics and 53% of blacks are more likely to support the ticket.
Next: we will examine the Voter Empowerment Index and the spirit of reform in New York State.
For an in-depth look at the data: see cross-tabulation tables below.