Harris Has a Narrow Lead of 3.7 Percentage Points in the Four-Way Horse Race and is Ahead by 2.4 Percentage Points in the Two-Way Horse Race.
A new John Zogby Strategies national online poll of 1,005 registered likely voters, conducted November 2nd – November 3rd, shows a tight race in both the four-way and two-way races.
Make no mistake about it: this remains a competitive and tight race. While our numbers portend Harris can take the popular vote, the battleground states look tight. Virtually every poll is showing narrow leads by one candidate or the other. Be very wary of any predictions with certainty at this point – unless the damn breaks because of a major event,” says Jeremy Zogby, Managing Partner.
“Harris leads Trump among independents (+13), women (+12), those older than 65 (+19), suburban voters (+6), large city voters (+20), and young women (+35). Trump, on the other hand, leads Harris among first-time voters (+8), the under 30 vote (+2), men (+6), small city voters (+4), the rural vote (+19), Hispanics (+5), and young men (+39),” reports John Zogby, Senior Partner.
“Democrats are better spread among several issues including abortion, the economy, perceiving Trump as a threat to Democracy, and climate change/environment.” Republican intensity is a juggernaut, with most energy going into inflation and the crisis at the border. These are two very different messages and campaigns, yet both have made inroads into critical demographics not usually associated with their respective parties. Trump has made inroads with the Black vote (19%), and Harris looks like she has sealed the deal with independents who are concerned about the economy and the border. Take note, 7% of these unaffiliated are still undecided,” says Jeremy Zogby.
“I’m particularly struck by the 74-point gender gap separating young men and young women. The notable education gap is 32 points between those with a college degree and those without. According to John Zogby, the key takeaway is “a serious demographic realignment between the two parties appears to be taking place.“
For a look at the topline, see here.
