Harris Has a Narrow Lead of 2.4 Percentage Points in the Two-Way Horse Race; Plurality of Voters Expect Trump to Win
A new John Zogby Strategies national online poll of 1,005 registered likely voters, conducted November 2nd – November 3rd, shows a tight race in both the four-way and two-way races.
While our numbers portend Harris can take the popular vote by a thin margin, the battleground states look tight. Virtually every poll is showing narrow leads by one candidate or the other. Be very wary of any predictions with certainty at this point – unless the dam breaks because of a major event,” says Jeremy Zogby, Managing Partner.
“Harris leads Trump among independents (+7), women (+10), large city voters (+18), and young women (+35). Trump, on the other hand, leads Harris among first-time voters (+8), the under 30 vote (+5), men (+6), small city voters (+3), the rural vote (+19), Hispanics (+8), and young men (+39),” reports John Zogby, Senior Partner.
“Democrats are voting for several top issues including abortion (ranked number one), the economy (second), perceiving Trump as a threat to Democracy (third), and climate change/environment.” Republican intensity is a juggernaut, with most energy focused on inflation and the crisis at the border. Our polling shows Trump voters’ reason for voting Trump is mainly due to agreement with his policies. For Harris, more voters are voting against Trump and less so in agreement with her policies. Trump appears to have formed a new coalition with inroads into the Black, Hispanic, and youth vote.” says Jeremy Zogby.
“I’m particularly struck by the 74-point gender gap separating young men and young women. The notable education gap is 32 points between those with a college degree and those without. According to John Zogby, the key takeaway is “a serious demographic realignment between the two parties appears to be taking place.“
See topline data here.
