John Zogby Strategies’ latest poll of New Jersey likely voters in the race for Governor reveals Democrat Mikie Sherrill leads Republican Jack Ciaterelli 50% to 42%. Sherill holds 88% of the Democratic party, while Ciaterelli’s support is equally strong with 86% of Republicans. Independent voters are more evenly balanced, with 45% selecting Sherrill and 40% selecting Ciaterelli, and 16% undecided.
Other key findings include:
- When asked who they think will win as of today, 44 % of New Jersey likely voters say Sherrill, while 37% say Ciattarelli.
- Drilling down again to independent voters, there is a toss-up – 35% are undecided, another 35% expect Democrat Sherrill, and 30% support Ciattarelli.
- By a factor of nine percentage points, 49% of voters say the New Jersey governorship should remain with the Democratic party, while 39% believe it’s time for the Republicans, leaving 12% undecided.
- Nearly half (46%) of all voters cite crime and public safety as the issue that will decide who they vote for. Followed by the New Jersey economy and property/income taxes, with 36% of voters selecting each as the second top issue. Immigration came in a distant third (22%).
- When asked which candidate would better handle each major issue, Ciatterelli is favored by slightly more voters for crime and public safety. At the same time, slightly more voters expect Sherrill to grow the state’s economy and address property and state income taxes.
- A large number of independents are unsure which candidate will better handle better crime, the state’s economy and taxes.
- Managing Partner Jeremy Zogby says, “The key takeaway from the poll is the large number of independents who remain on the fence who they’ll vote for (16%) come election day and the nearly one-quarter of independents unsure which candidate will resolve the most critical issues crime and state taxes. Watch for this group to decide during the final stretch – October.”
Don’t miss our next podcast episode of Real Polling in Real Time with Zogby, where John and Jeremy discuss their latest poll results, which reveal that New Jersey voters and which competing visions they side with more – Zohran Mamdani or Charlie Kirk? Sign up to receive here.
The John Zogby Strategies online poll of 912 New Jersey likely voters in the upcoming election for Governor has a margin of error of +/-3.3 percentage points and was fielded from September 30 to October 2, 2025.
