The Search for the Winning Message

By Jeremy Zogby, Managing Partner, John Zogby Strategies

 

A national poll of likely voters by John Zogby Strategies recently tested the day’s top issues using Zogby’s signature statement A vs. B survey questions.   In each question, every effort was taken to give opposing views their best shot regarding critical issues for America’s future and especially the upcoming midterm elections.  What follows is a list of carefully crafted poll questions, an analysis with key demographic breakdowns, and an exercise in the search for the winning message.

For exact question wording and a breakdown of all demographics, please see crosstabulation data here.

Transgenderism/Trans sexuality – Has it gone too far/Has necessarily increased awareness?

 

	Overall	Dems	Reps	Ind.		White	Hisp.	Black
Has gone too far	49	33	71	40	49		55	47
Has necessarily increased awareness	35	51	18	38	36		36	32
Not sure	16	16	11	23	15		9	21

 

Overall, half of voters believe the media exposure of the issue has gone too far, though a significant one-third say it has advanced an important cause.

Interestingly, an almost equal number of Whites, Hispanics, and Blacks feel the increased coverage has been overdone.

 

$70 billion in Military Aid for Ukraine – For a righteous cause/Putting Americans in danger 

 

	Overall	Dems	Reps	Ind.	18-29	Black
For a righteous cause	44	54	34	40	33	27
Putting Americans in danger	38	29	47	38	51	51
Not sure	19	17	18	22	16	22

 

Voters are essentially split.  Looking at party, Republicans are more non-interventionist here in this particular case, whereas a majority of Democrats believe it’s for a moral cause.   Note Independents are equally split.

Young voters and Black voters are by far the most likely subgroups to believe there is more to lose than gain in the Ukrainian war with Russia.

 

Inflation and the Fed – Learn to live with less easy credit in order to recover/Keep the credit coming 

 

	Overall	Dems	Reps	Ind.
Learn to live with less easy credit in order to recover	47	42	53	46
Keep it coming, don’t shut off the engine	32	38	30	27
Not sure	21	20	18	27

 

Across the board, psychology appears to have shifted or accepted that living high on the credit hog won’t last forever, as is the nature of every boom.   Of course, Americans have witnessed rate hikes over the year and have been told by the Fed that a soft landing is possible.  However, the UN signaled last week asking Central Banks worldwide to stop raising rates after the Bank of England reversed course.  Will Americans demand “turn those machines back on!” to quote a famous movie on the matter?  It is likely that as the Fed hikes rates until the bubble pops, as witnessed in London a week ago, many voters and the Fed will be more than willing to lower interest rates again.  What happens next from there is inflationary.  Whether or not it’s the final “crack-up boom” phase of this inflationary cycle or persistent and hefty stagflation for several years remains to be seen.

 

The 2022 Crime Wave – This wave is not extraordinary/It is unlike anything I have ever seen. 

 

	Overall	Dems	Reps	Ind.	Urban	Suburban	Rural
Crime wave isn’t extraordinary	38	46	27	41	38	42	29
It’s unlike anything I’ve seen	49	39	62	45	51	46	57
Not sure	13	15	11	14	11	13	14

 

Almost half of Americans perceive this crime wave as unprecedented. Though more Democrats (nearly half) say it isn’t extraordinary, almost as many say it is.

But location tells the story.  Across the board, city dwellers, suburbanites, and rural voters all seem to believe the 2022 crime wave has taken a new level.    Note, more than half of women (not referenced in the chart above – 52%) agree it is unlike anything they have ever seen vs. 31% who believe it is not extraordinary.  The next issue ties in nicely and is also revealing.

 

The Southern Border – I dislike talk of increasing security/I’m concerned about the lack of security 

 

	Overall	Dems	Reps	Ind.	White	Hispanic	Black
Dislike talk of increased security	28	42	14	25	24	39	35
I’m concerned about the lack of	54	31	78	52	60	41	37
Not sure	19	27	7	23	16	20	28

 

Republicans show immense intensity over the issue.  When Trump was in office, it was relatively easy to brand any talk of border security as xenophobic.  It is counterintuitive that Hispanics and Blacks are evenly split over the matter, and Democrats who don’t like the discussion of increased security at the Southern border only outnumber Democrats who are concerned about it by 11 percentage points.

 

Abortion – A top 3 issue facing America today/An important issue but not top 3 

	Overall	Dems	Reps	Ind.	Men	Women
Abortion is a top 3 issue	48	66	30	49	43	53
It is important but not top 3	38	22	57	37	45	33
Not sure	13	12	14	14	13	14

 

Here is where Democrat intensity is visible but perhaps only on the surface because Republican intensity doesn’t lag too far behind.  While slightly more than half of women say it is a top 3 issue – note that it’s about the same percentage among women who believe the recent crime wave is unlike anything they have ever seen and are concerned about the Southern border.  This leads me to think the issue of abortion may not be as intense among women overall as many of us have thought since late June.  In other words, one might have expected the number of overall women who say abortion is a top 3 issue to exceed 60 percent.  But it doesn’t.

 

The Survival of Democracy – It’s the other party/It’s the two-party system 

 

	Overall	Dems	Reps	Ind.
It’s the other party that threatens the survival of our Democracy	32	39	33	21
It’s the two-party system that pits us against each other	46	39	48	54
Not sure	22	22	20	26

 

 

We have arrived at the winning message as not only do almost half of voters agree it’s the current two-party system that threatens our Democracy, but also most members within each affiliation.

Amidst all the division and talk of Civil War 2.0, we learn that far more Americans believe it is the two-party system that pits them against each other (as the exact wording in the survey question goes).

And through this exercise, we learn that most voters realize it is not the other team (red or blue) but rather the system.  Yet, we have been locked into a multi-decade political war front going back to 2004 when we first heard people saying, “I’m not inviting them over because they voted for…” or, “I’m not moving into that neighborhood because too many…live there.”

Now we have reached the point of no return where twice in a row, both parties have rejected the other side (2016 – part I, 2020 – part II).

And what makes anyone believe November 2022 will be any different?  Does it not feel like just one big rolling election since 2016 – all the while, we get sucked further into a vortex of political scapegoating.

The last question is very telling.

 

The Congressional Generic Ballot – Which party do you plan to vote for in November? 

 

	Overall
Democrat	40
Republican	40
Another party	5
Not sure	16

 

When putting it all together, the numbers above on the surface reflect that Conservatives have an edge.  However, the question asking whether it is the other party or the system, in general, reveals political party fatigue – especially when factoring in what happened over the last two elections.  Meanwhile, for two decades, Americans have been highly divided, and something has to give.

It likely won’t be the losing party come November that gives, and it could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back.

Meanwhile, sentiment shows Americans see the current class of our two-party system as a threat to our Democratic way of life.

It should be the top story.