Today we’re going to look at the latest data including our own that suggests that especially in the key races around the country things continue to be fluid. Specifically, we’ll look at races in New Hampshire, Pennsylvania Arizona and more.
What’s going on here is that not matter how good the science is in polling – what makes polls different is what the turnout model is. Let’s break down some of the key demographics in key areas such as suburban women, hispanics and Independents.
Keep in mind, history is on side of the GOP (or any opposing party after a Presidential election), and the economy is on everyone’s mind.
In our own poll of independent voters in battleground states, this tracks with our data, but the issues that will make you turn out and vote – the issue of making claims of election fraud, turned off the largest percentage of voters. That’s a real intensity that is telling us that the Republicans may have the edge on issues, but Independent voters do NOT like candidates who deny the results of the 2020 election.
We’ll have lots to talk about next week and as always, we welcome your comments. Have a great week everyone.