What Happened with the Election Polls?
by Paul Bedard, Washington Examiner
Former Vice President Joe Biden has a commanding 13-point election lead over President Trump, but a new survey revealed that he still isn’t the united choice of Democrats.
In fact, more than 1 in 3 Democrats want him replaced, and they would support New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, former first lady Michelle Obama, or 2016 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.
The latest John Zogby Strategies/EMI Research Solutions survey, provided exclusively to Secrets, said that Biden leads Trump 53% to 40%.
The survey showed that Biden is holding the traditional Democratic lead over Trump among Hispanics and blacks and reinforced others showing a shift by older people to Biden.
The polling analysis said that Biden is leading voters over 65, 63% to 37%. It said older people are a “group that has been sustaining Mr. Trump but who appear to be falling away from the president since the COVID-19 crisis.”
While those numbers are encouraging, the Zogby/EMI analysis warned that “there may be a bumpy road to the White House for the expected Democratic nominee.”
In the nationwide poll of 1,001 likely voters, with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points, many Democrats and minorities said they want a different nominee than the 77-year-old Biden who has been a Washington fixture for 47 years.
Citing “problems ahead,” the survey found that 37% of Democrats “support replacing him as the nominee.” Just 55% “prefer to keep him.”
And among subgroups, the numbers were higher, especially with liberals and Hispanics. Said the analysis:
“Also wanting to replace him include independents (45% to 37%), progressives (61%-39%), 39% of liberals, 42% of moderates, 64% of Hispanics, and 31% of African Americans.”
The survey suggested one reason included the charges of sex abuse from former Senate aide Tara Reade. It said that 35% of voters “tend to believe Ms. Reade over Mr. Biden,” and, among women, the margin is 38% believing Reade with 31% believing Biden’s denial.
As to who they’d rather have, it’s a tie between Cuomo and Michelle Obama. “If Mr. Biden were to be replaced, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo and former First Lady Michelle Obama would perform about the same as Mr. Biden in a race against the President. Small comfort for another first lady, Hillary Clinton, who would lead Mr. Trump by 46% to 43%.”
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John, while 37% of voters would choose to dump Biden, a follow up question is: would they vote for Trump instead of Biden? Would they not vote? Would they write in? As in any election, some voters might not prefer the candidate of their party, but will they still vote for him, flawed as he might be. The bumper sticker “Any functioning adult 2020” comes to mind here. I suspect most of those 37%, even if they have to hold their noses, would still come to the polls and vote for Biden.
Richard,
Sorry for the delay. You are correct. Even though they’d like to have someone more competitive, who is that person? Cuomo and Michelle (in hypothetical match-ups) fared about the same. So it is more than likely they would still vote for Biden. Good insight. Hope you are well.