In a new poll of 1006 likely voters nationwide, former Vice-President Joe Biden holds on to a two-point lead over President Donald Trump, 49% to 47% with 4% not sure. The random sample online poll was taken on Friday beginning after 7 PM and has an overall margin-of-sampling error of +/-3.2 percentage points.
Our July 8th poll showed Biden leading Trump 49% to 42% and the previous poll released on August 29th had Biden leading by six points (48% to 42%).
The former VP is leading among Democrats 91%-8%, voters 18-29 years of age (60%-35%) and those 30-49 (50%-45%), as well as among women (56%-41%), Progressives (85%-15%), Liberals (85%-14%) and Moderates (58%-36%). He also leads among Hispanics is 61%-34% and Blacks (87%-11%).
The President, who was hospitalized before the poll was launched, leads among fellow Republicans (94%-6%), voters 50-64 (53%-45%) and those over 65 (50%-47%). As of now, Mr. Trump is capturing a slight majority of Catholic voters (51%-46%), Evangelicals (68%-32%), Conservatives (78%-18%), and Very Conservative voters (92%-8%). He also is ahead among Whites (56%-40%) and parents of children under 17 living at home (54%-40%).
The two candidates are tied among Independents at 44% each with 12% undecided.
In a 4-way test including two prominent third-party candidates, Mr. Biden leads 47%-45%, with 2% each for Dr. Jo Jorgensen of the Libertarian Party and Green nominee Howie Hawkins.
In other results:
- By a margin of 43%-40%, voters still think that Mr. Trump will win the election
- The President’s job approval has climbed to 50% while 47% disapprove
- 31% say the country is heading in the right direction, 60% feel it is moving in the wrong direction
- Overall, the top issues in rank order are Covid-19 (38%), Jobs/Economy (34%), Health Care (33%), Crime/Public Safety (19%), Taxes/Budget (15%), Immigration (13%), and Climate Change/Environment (12%). Democrats are far more likely to select Covid-19 than Republicans (47% to 28%), while Republicans select Jobs/Economy 40% to 29% over the Democrats, as well as Crime/Public Safety (24%-12%).
- For 18-29 year-olds Climate Change/Environment is the second highest issue (22%)
- Among voters who have voted already, or plan to vote by mail, Biden leads 61% to 36%. On the flip side, Among those who intend to vote in person, Trump leads 58% to 39%.
Pollster John Zogby: Contrary to my own observations, it looks like the President has not been hurt by his debate performance nor his hospitalization. His 47% performance is actually one point higher than his vote percentage in 2016. For now, he appears to have consolidated his base of Whites, parents, conservatives, men, and his own party’s voters. Joe Biden looks as if he is on his way to doing the same with his base. His numbers among Hispanics are respectable but not quite at the 66%-67% he really needs. The same with Blacks. His 86% is better than our last poll but he needs to hit 90%, especially in those key battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Georgia. His 60%-35% lead among young voters is about where he needs to be. He is going to have to get his position on climate change out better through all the noise. Our last poll had Mr. Biden leading strongly among independents but now the two candidates are tied with 12% still undecided. It is important to note that since 2000 the Presidential races have had a see-saw quality and this may continue to play out for the remaining month. This poll shows that the potential for a “red to blue shift” could be very real. With Trump winning the count on Election day, and Biden’s mail-ins coming in after the election.
John Zogby Strategies
Nearly 40 years of excellence providing the most accurate polling and market research – servicing clients in over 80 countries, ranging from global NGOs, Fortune 500 companies, candidates from all parties, business startups, and local municipalities trying to redefine their strategy amidst dynamic changes. JZS asks revealing questions that get to the core and point to the future, offer meaningful analysis, and guiding strategies.
EMI Research Solutions
EMI Research Solutions is a leading online sample provider. Founded in 1999, leverages more than 150 partners in over 95 countries to provide high quality, most cost-effective sample for any project. Combining superior expertise, white glove service, and unmatched reach makes EMI your one-stop sample provider – getting it done without compromise!