New Zogby Poll of 1,007 US Likely Midterm Voters, With a Margin of Error +/- 3.2
Following last month’s John Zogby Strategies August 4th poll in which Democrats led Republicans by 9 percentage points, Republicans have narrowed the gap and trail Democrats by 6 percentage points, according to our latest poll conducted September 15-17, 2026.
The poll also shows strong turnout among both parties, with 78% of Democrats saying they’ll definitely vote on November 3 vs. a nearly identical 76% of Republicans. Last month, Democrats had the advantage, with 75% of their base signaling they’d definitely vote vs. 65% of Republicans. Today, both are charging up as we inch closer to Election Day, indicating no party has a real turnout advantage.
Getting back to the Congressional Generic Ballot question: If the November midterm elections were held today, which candidate would you vote for in Congress in your district? 38% of Independent voters choose Democrat, 26% opt for the Republican, and 11% say other party, leaving a significant 25% undecided. The Zogby poll consists of 35.5% Democrats, 35.5% Republicans, and 29% Independents. One-quarter of Independents remain undecided.
On the issues front, the deciding issues among voters are as follows:
Inflation cited by 44%, Americans’ health and the state of healthcare (23%), immigration and the border (19%), taxes and the budget (19%), crime (16%), the Iran war (13%), tariffs (12%), and AI data centers and job loss (11%). These issues received double-digit percentages. All other issues received single-digit percentages.
Breaking down top issues by party, Democrats, Republicans, and Independents alike cite inflation (44%, 42%, and 47%, respectively). Democrats’ second-ranked issue is health and healthcare (30%). The second top issue among Republicans is immigration (32%). For Independents, it is taxes and the budget (25%).
Voters were also asked which party will deliver on key issues. Here is a chart displaying the key findings:
| Democrats | Republicans | Neither Party | |
| Relieve Affordability Crisis | 41% | 30% | 20% |
| Minimize job loss due to AI | 36% | 27% | 24% |
| Maintain US leadership around globe | 40% | 36% | 15% |
| Regain trust following the Epstein files | 37% | 24% | 26% |
| Keep the American dream alive | 37% | 35% | 20% |
| Best solution to immigration | 35% | 39% | 17% |
| Make America the healthiest nation | 39% | 31% | 20% |
| Fix healthcare | 42% | 30% | 20% |
| Prevent the spread of crime and unrest | 32% | 39% | 33% |
Among the 9 issues tested, Democrats lead on seven while Republicans lead on two. On the one hand, leading 7 of 9 key issues indicates Democratic dominance to date. On the other hand, Republicans lead on two, issues frequently cited as top issues that will decide how voters cast their vote on November 3rd. Regarding the importance of crime in the political landscape, Pollster John Zogby has often cited the “Willie Horton effect” as key to Republicans maintaining a competitive edge in the midterms.
Pollster Jeremy Zogby: “That party which connects better on local issues is the party that will likely win. Democrats have the upper hand on backlash against data centers and are seen by voters as better positioned to fight the hyper-local issue. Republicans remain strong on crime. In the coming weeks, watch for explosive stories of urban violence, as recently witnessed in York, Pennsylvania. And watch for the AI and data center issue to become perhaps one of the most key wedge issues of this cycle. Today Democrats lead with greater advantages, but the gap has narrowed since our previous poll.”
For further details about the midterms and Presidential approval ratings, tune in to Real Polling in Real Time with Zogby.
Contact jeremy@johnzogbystrategies.com for source data.
