By John Zogby, Senior Partner
About 7 in 10 Americans plan to watch either some or all of tonight’s presidential debate. The race between the two presidents is about even, but it is safe to say that Mr. Trump holds a lead per the most recent nationwide polls. Despite some gains made by Mr. Biden in the polls over the previous two weeks, the former president is holding national leads of 4, 6, and even 8 percentage points. He also leads, as of this moment, in 6 key battleground states. It is safe to say that Mr. Biden goes into this debate on the ropes.
Here are some brief thoughts on what I expect tonight.
- Both candidates have a Plan A and Plan B. For Mr. Trump, Plan A will be to tone things down, try to look staid and presidential, just kind of dribble the ball and let Mr. Biden make a mistake, then he can run out the clock. This strategy would disarm the current president because it could make a more aggressive approach to the former president look too hot. It could be counter-productive. Plan B for Mr. Trump would be just being himself – aggressive and bullyish. His supporters would see this as authentic, but it would set the tone for an actual fistfight, something not very appealing to independents or the substantial numbers of “Double Haters.”
- Biden’s Plan A would show that he is vigilant and considers Mr. Trump a threat to the nation and democracy. This will rev up his base and possibly appeal to moderates and independents, but as suggested in the first point, it could make him appear too hot and turn Mr. Trump into the victim. Plan B for the President will be to merely talk about his achievements and convince voters that America is better off with Joe Biden at the helm.
- A major theme tonight will be foreign policy. As an American Firster, Mr. Trump will charge Mr. Biden with the folly of getting too involved in the near-hopeless cause of saving Ukraine and in threatening World War III with US involvement in the Middle East. The fact that neither has a policy that makes sense nor deals with the assistance to the Palestinians of both Gaza and the West Bank means that this issue will not get the thoughtful attention it deserves. The real loser on this will be the current president because his position supporting Israel’s invasion is losing him vital elements of the coalition that brought him to victory four years ago – young voters, nonwhite voters, and suburban women.
- There is more at stake than issues like inflation, immigration, crime, abortion, or climate change. All three political brands face high stakes tonight – especially CNN. Many voters will scrutinize all three – Biden and Trump for their faculties, and CNN for fairness. For mainly this reason, the debate is historic. Given that the stakes are so high for all three, I would expect each of them to deliver what they need to or potentially face losses before what is expected to be a vast audience.
