President Donald Trump receives 14% of the black vote if the election were held today, according to a new Newsmax/John Zogby Strategies Poll.
The online poll of 600 black likely voters nationwide was conducted September 4-7 and has a margin of sampling error of +/-4.1 percentage points.
Biden’s lead is of course across the board among this most loyal group of Democrat voters but there are some potential pitfalls for the former Vice President.
In 2008 and 2012, Barack Obama won 96% and 93% of the black vote. Hillary Clinton’s 89% to Trump’s 9% victory among blacks was not enough to win the Presidency.
Also, low black turnout in states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania helped Trump
If Trump’s 14% total holds into November, this could hurt the Democratic nominee again in must-win in critical Rust Belt, along with Minnesota, Georgia, and Texas, which Biden hopes to win.
In the Newsmax/John Zogby Strategies Poll, Trump does best among black Republicans (79% to Biden’s 19%), independents (20% to Biden’s 68%), self-described conservatives (42% to Biden’s 54%), those without any college education (19% to Biden’s 77%), 18-29-year-olds (33% to Biden’s 62%), westerners (44% to Biden’s 55%), and men (21% to Biden’s 76%).
The President does especially well among young blacks — 18-24-year-olds — with 38% to Biden’s 61%.
When the names of the Vice-Presidential nominees are added, the needle hardly moves at all.
And when a four-way battle is tested with the Libertarian candidate Dr. Jo Jorgensen and Green nominee Howie Hawkins, Biden’s numbers drop to 79% to Trump’s holding at 14%, with the two smaller party candidates at 1% each.
Biden’s score also drops to 79% in a three-way match-up that includes rapper Kanye West, who receives just 1%. Trump maintains his 14% in all potential races. West’s best performance is among 18-29-year-olds at 4%.
Black voters are not enamored with the President who receives only a 15% personal approval rating and an 83% unfavorable rating.
Biden gets a ratio of 81%-17% (though only 51% are favorable and 44% unfavorable among 18-29-year-olds), while running mate Kamala Harris has a healthy 76%-12% rating with 13% not sure.
In other findings:
- Only 11% say that blacks, in general, will benefit more if Donald Trump is re-elected vs. 67% who say blacks will benefit more if Joe Biden is elected.
- 82% rate the President negatively for his handling of the Coronavirus epidemic
- 61% believe abortion should be legal (28% in all circumstances, 33% with some restrictions)), while 23% believe it should be illegal under most circumstances. 22% of blacks have a favorable view of the NRA, while 61% hold an unfavorable view of the gun rights organization.
- By a factor of 84% to 13%, blacks support Black Lives Matter including 79%-15% of independents, 84%-13% of evangelicals, and all age groups.
- A large majority (64%) of Black likely voters support the police in their area of residence vs. 24% that oppose.
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John Zogby Strategies
Four decades of excellence providing the most accurate polling and market research. JZS has serviced clients in over 80 countries, ranging from global NGOs, Fortune 500 companies, candidates from all parties, business startups, and local municipalities trying to redefine their strategy amidst dynamic changes. JZS asks revealing questions that get to the core and point to the future, offer meaningful analysis, and guiding strategies.