Trump ‘s Dropping Numbers Among Key Voters

President Trump vs. Former V.P. Harris Head-to-Head Match-Ups  March & April

*Note – March Column represents Trump ahead in most cohorts

The chart of key and bellwether voting demographics tells the entire story – President Trump is witnessing a significant drop in support heading into the completion of his first 100 days, similar to what Biden experienced four years ago.

Approval/Disapproval Ratings

This fictitious head-to-head between Trump and Harris is only real in that Harris, who lost every battleground state last November, now trails Trump by a single vote in our poll of 1,000 voters (474 to 473, leaving 53 undecided). The numbers reveal that Trump is playing with fire regarding tariffs, and the so-called art of the deal is starting to weigh on voters who anticipate a weaker economy.

While Trump’s overall approval/disapproval rating last month was 48%-48%, today it is 48%-50%. Drilling down further, testing his approval on many issues, including handling the economy, tariffs on imports, dealing with Russia and Ukraine, and dealing with world leaders in general, no doubt the most significant negative impact came from voters weighing in on his trade policy and handling of the economy. With trade, voters rate his approval/disapproval 40%-56%. Regarding his handling of the economy, Trump’s approval/disapproval rating is 44%-51%.

The President still does well with the border issue and cutting government waste, with the ratings at 54%-41% and 54%-42%, respectively. Approval ratings are critical barometers, and the data from this latest poll tells us while voters initially wanted a strong man to go toe-to-toe with Putin and Xi and slay inflation, today, they appear to have buyer’s remorse due to frequent and intensifying international and economic uncertainty. Trump may tell voters to trust the plan (or the deal). But that requires a lot of faith, especially when the markets are melting, and the roller coaster ride is nauseating.

Chart Analysis of Key & Bellwether Groups – Ranked by Attrition

• Independent voters are a bellwether, and if we learned anything from the last election cycle, independents went with Biden in 2020 only to rebel in the November 2021 Virginia Gubernatorial – signaling they were swinging back to MAGA. With a drop such as the one noted in the table above – I’d keep my eye on this group.
• Voters in small cities are another bellwether group because that’s where you will find the highest level of financial anxiety. In our poll, they had the lowest expectation compared to voters from big cities, suburbs, and rural areas, that the Trump Presidency would improve their financial situation – only 36% expect it to improve under the Trump presidency vs. 55% who expect it to worsen.
• New media consumers are the fastest-growing media cohort. They’re cynical about legacy media and favor political influencers over traditional journalists, so they heavily lean toward Trump, not Harris. However, the chart reveals a significant drop in their support for Trump. They take the opposite side of most issues covered in legacy media – for example – they anticipated the war with Ukraine to be over on Trump’s first day in office. Are they growing weary of an unkept promise?
• Hispanics have witnessed a massive attrition rate, as noted above. Our November poll had them evenly split between Harris and Trump. Today, they would swing back to Harris in a heartbeat. It could be a combination of tariffs on Latin American countries and the general fear among their ethnic counterparts terrified of the border czar’s calls to raid workplaces and homes.
• Voters under 30 – another crucial bloc – are in a tight spot regarding their current financial and career prospects. They hold large amounts of student loans and credit card debt. And now, they’re increasingly victims of the Buy Now Pay Later scam. They tilted toward Trump last November because they expected the entrepreneurial outsider to help them with a rigged system. Now, they have another growing concern – their economic outlook.
• Weekly, Walmart shoppers are still with Trump, but as evidenced by the five-point drop in the above chart, they don’t see that iconic smiley face when they walk into a Walmart. Perhaps they envision empty shelves and rising prices due to growing concerns about trade wars and non-stop pessimistic sentiment in the news cycle.
• A popular political ad among Evangelicals during this past cycle claimed, “God made Trump.” That sort of messaging helps us understand Born-again Christian’s strength of support; however, a seven-point drop in just thirty days is note-worthy slippage.
• MAGA has figured out what drives parents of young children, which is doubling down on aspects of the culture wars that elicit righteous anger from parents. It comes down to what the truck driver Ed Durr said after unseating the most powerful state Senator in New Jersey in 2021, only spending a few thousand on his campaign. Durr stated, “Once you start messing with people’s families, you’ve got a real problem.”  Parents remain with the President.
• Veterans of war are also still firmly with the President. They see war differently than most of us and undoubtedly have difficulty seeing Harris holding her own in Moscow or Beijing. During increasingly turbulent times, one may expect their support to increase, and it has.
• Lastly, homeowners, or true stakeholders in the American Dream, are with Trump. On the other hand, 401K holders are not surprisingly fearful after getting burned during the first stock market tantrum.

The numbers don’t lie in the final analysis, especially those from a four-decade-old independent polling firm. The President would be wise to read this carefully.

Methodology

John Zogby Strategies conducted a national survey of 1,000 voters online on April 22-23. Minimal weights were applied using the 2024 exit polls. The overall margin of error is +/- 3.2. Error margins for subgroups are higher.  JZS took measures to reduce sample bias including question-wording and order.