We have just about 4.5 months to go until the November elections. It’s a good time to take a deep breath and see where things stand. The short answer is that it’s tied.

When you add the minor candidates in the race the story is about the same with Trump leading by approx. 2%.

But if you look at the race in pieces you get a different story. In a recent story in the Economist, they’re suggesting the likely winner is Trump based on the dynamics in the battleground states.

So let’s dig in and see what’s really happening.

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