There’s no question that Kamala Harris received a small bump from the convention and the debate, and after a 2nd assassination attempt on Trump the poll is still tied at 47% to 47%. The question we have though – is the race really moving at all? In battleground states, each candidate may have a small lead, but well within the margin of error. Because of these tiny changes are we over-reporting a race that is not moving and where neither candidate is really leading?
At the end of the day, this is a close race, and the possibility still exists for an October surprise or (another) black swan event. What does the economy do after the Fed’s rate cut, what happens in the Middle East, and what develops in Ukraine? Those events will continue to shape the race and it’s simply a fool’s errand to make any solid predictions in a race this tight.
We’ll also take a look at some previous tight national elections that broke in the final days and weeks and discuss what we might learn from them.
Have a great week and we’ll see you next time.
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