This week really was all about the Democratic Convention and the political landscape. We’ll recap this unconventional convention and discuss the format, and performances of Biden and Harris. Did they do what they needed to do to solidify their support amongst the various wings of the Democratic Party?
We’ll also preview some of the things to look for at the upcoming Republican National Convention and preview some of the concepts and questions we’ll be asking likely voters in our upcoming polling.
Stay tuned for new polling data next week as well as updates to our Main St./K St. IntelligenSEER report. Thanks for tuning in, sharing and subscribing.
01:00 – DNC Recap
Given the very unique circumstances of creating a virtual convention, we think the producers pulled it off. Progressives, moderates and even some Republicans were included and for many voters, they got to see who Biden and Harris really are. Biden did what he needed to do – which was showing that he was up to the job, displaying strength, empathy and experience.
Biden is coming into the convention with a lead of on average 8 percentage points and we expect he’ll see a small bump as a result of his performance.
It was a message of both unity but also one of how the President has taken us down the wrong path through his division, actions and rhetoric.
08:50 – What to look for at the RNC
Go back to any one of Trump’s State of the Union messages as a guide and look to hear about security and successes before the COVID19 pandemic. At this point the President is still on the ropes and he’ll be going after Biden very hard. But he is also forced to be dependent on events over which he doesn’t have any control – such as a COVID vaccine or signs of an economic recovery. In short, don’t expect to hear a message of unity.
There are only two ways for Trump to get support beyond his base – ensure that some of Biden’s weakest supporters stay home or to have some sort major improvement of the economy or a change in the way the virus is affecting the country.
20:10 – We preview some of the concepts and questions that we’ll be posing to our group of likely voters after the RNC. These will provide a very unique look at the their worldview and will allow us to draw conclusions about how they may vote in the upcoming election and beyond. Some of those include:
- Where do Americans stand on our two-party system?
- Do we need a new Constitutional Convention?
- Where do Americans stand on large issues such as a Universal Basic Income (UBI).
- Should masks be mandated at the Federal level?
- Which shows are you watching? How might those influence your politics?
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Thank you for reminding us how fragile Joe Biden’s impressive lead actually is even though he has been consistently out front for many months. So, was Hillary Clinton a mere four years ago. That said, the convention seemed very different to me. Lackluster, devoid of dramatic tension, zero suspense, little comedy and repetitious to a fault as well as excruciatingly circumlocutious, there can be little wonder why the virtual convention of 2020 earned lower ratings than previous actual, authentic conventions. The DNC needs new scriptwriters. Both Zogbys made excellent comments about potential points of inflection in the coming 72 days — the debates where both candidates have exhibited their capacities to blunder into gaffes and the ominous eminence of the October Surprise. This would not be an American presidential campaign without the latter, a looming and unpredictable X-factor that could influence the outcome either way. Donald Trump must be torn by tenterhooks tearing into his flesh and trembling in fear of the huge universe of possibilities that an American president simply cannot control.