What a week it’s been with questions about the President’s condition and the upcoming debate. He’s been hospitalized, left the hospital, posted erratic messages online, refused to debate virtually, cancelled COVID stimulus talks, and now demanding a deal.
So where does the race stand? Our numbers show Biden with a 2-3% lead while on the upper end CNN has Biden ahead by 16 points. We’ll explain why we’re getting the numbers we’re getting.
Just as important – we’ll look at what the data tells us about the state of our country and what dangers may be ahead after November 3rd.
SHOW NOTES:
01:00 How We Get Our Numbers:
First when you’re making a forecast, you want to be sure to the degree that you can that the sample model that you’re using is a reflection of the turnout on Election Day.
Remember we use a 38% Democrat’s and 34% Republic model because we believe this is the most accurate numbers. Every other pollster that has a double digit lead is because they have an oversampling of Democrats and an under sampling of Republicans.
We’re seeing energy on both sides and a lack of undecideds, including evangelicals and that’s why our model is showing a tighter race.
09:34 The state of the country.
We’re living in a country where majorities don’t matter – intensities do. Things are being driven by who is the loudest.
Our reporting is showing that a majority of the electorate will accept the results of the election if their candidate doesn’t win – but around 25% say they will not or might not. This is a dangerous situation.
There are many in Congress who don’t need to go beyond their base due to gerrymandered districts and so compromise has been less common. We’ve seen multiple government shutdowns because Congress is in an ideological battle of some sort.
There will be a reckoning. Whether that’s November 3rd, we don’t know. But we do not see Trump relinquishing office easily and there will be an enormous amount of pressure on Biden not to concede either.
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