Let’s look at where we stand. A brand new poll by Investors Business Daily and TIPP has a 6-point race with Biden in the lead 49% to 43%. The polls have been moving around and while it does look likely that Biden will win, don’t go to your bookmaker yet.
We’ll share the latest polls and some of the other important data that show that the race is still very much one that is too close to call.
Finally, we’ll be releasing our final poll data the weekend of the election and will host our own Live Town Hall event Monday November 2nd. We’ll share the results of the poll and you’ll also have the opportunity to engage in our QandA. You can sign up with the link in our email blast.
Show Notes:
01:00 – Where do we stand?
We’ll look at and interpret all the latest polling and help you to understand why you’re seeing some of the numbers that you are.
05:00 Other Data
What other data can help us understand what might happen between now and Election Day in terms of mobilization and enthusiasm?
Trump volunteers have reached out to 20 million homes in swing states.
Gallup – Are you better off now? 56% say they ARE better off now than they were under Obama
Trafalgar Group – Predicts Trump narrowly wins the electoral college with 275 votes
Marco Kolanovic – based on voter registration in PA, FL and NC it does not look like a Gem sweep in those states.
In our polling Biden leads by 16% by those who have already voted or by those who will mail in
Trump leads by 18% by those who will wait until Election Day. Keep in mind 20 million people have already voted.
These are signals that point back to our thesis – that it’s too close to call.
13:05 – What’s the biggest news of the week?
Dr. David Nabarro made news this week with the appeal from The Who for governments to stop using lockdowns as the primary method to fight the virus and may bring a global crisis where poverty is doubled. Trump has already seized on this message and will carry it through Election Day.
Trump still receives decent marks on the handling of the economy. While important the election will also hinge on empathy, whether people trust science and personality. A mistake the media (this includes social media platforms like Twitter) makes is that it’s evident they dislike Trump and have become combatants in the race.
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