Two weeks before Election Day, we’ll discuss daily tracking and note an unusual lack of polling movement in multiple battleground races, with shifts often within the margin of error. Let’s compare this “frozen” environment to prior cycles that saw noticeable swings, but also talk about the nature of turnout models, which can vary by pollster assumptions and weighting. It’s still not a done deal and an “October surprise” could still move the needle amid global and economic uncertainty. Finally, we’ll also look at how the heavy late-cycle negative advertising and dark money may be actually be aimed at depressing turnout rather than persuading voters.
