The latest poll from Zogby Strategies reveals voters’ projections for the next four years based on perceptions of President Donald Trump’s first couple weeks in office: 42% of November 2024 voters say the Trump Presidency will move America forward, but the same percentage (41%) say he’ll set America back. Another 13% “believe Trump will give it his best shot, but likely there’ll be no impact.” This small cohort will be the crucial deciding factor in the coming months and years regarding which camp will hold the keys to understanding the incumbent’s intentions, successes, and failures.
Let’s take a look at the camps in this paradigm.
“Move America Forward: MAGA 2.0”
The MAGA 2.0 camp consists of the usual cohorts measuring high-intensity support for Mr. Trump and a positive outlook for the next four years.
- Conservative voters – of whom 71% say his administration will move the nation forward / 11% say set back);
- Talk radio enthusiasts (66% say forward / 15% say set back);
- Evangelicals (60% forward / 22% set back);
Rural voters (56% forward / 32% setback.
Then, as we noted in our previous release about new supporters for the Trump agenda, there are the not-so-obvious cohorts:
- Millennials (defined in our poll as ages 30-44 – 49% forward / 31% set back);
- Of those who trust new media more than more traditional outlets– more specifically, podcasts enthusiasts – 64% say his administration will move the nation forward, while 28% say it will set things backset;
- Men and parents hovering near 50% who say forward, and significantly fewer who
say a Trump Presidency will set us back.
“Set Things Back: The Anti-Trump Coalition”
The Anti-Trump Coalition’s core base includes, not surprisingly:
- Liberals, of whom 76% say his Presidency will set us back / 12% say move us
forward; - Voters who select national newspapers as their most trusted source of information
(59% say set us back / 23% say move us forward); - Those with a college degree (47% say set us back / 37% say move forward);
- Moderates (49% say set us back / 32% say move forward).
What The New Paradigm Means
This type of analysis is revealing because one key observation that jumps out is the Anti-
Trump group does not include many demographics in which large majorities or intense
pluralities believe the President will set the country back. In contrast, when looking at
MAGA 2.0, we see numerous groups with greater intensity of optimism.
While the nation remains divided overall, a close look at the diversity of groups and intensity within MAGA 2.0 demonstrates momentum.
The Anti-Trump Coalition has yet to define itself as the better alternative to MAGA 2.0.
Meanwhile, MAGA 2.0 has firmly picked up millennials and has built strong inroads into the Hispanic and Black vote – three pillars of the Obama coalition.
Another cohort worthy of mention is voters who trust most local news. 47% believe the
President will move America forward, whereas 36% say he’ll set us back.
They’re another group firmly with the President but have the potential to swing the other way if they go sour.
The Zogby Strategies Poll of 955 likely voters nationwide was conducted on February 2 and 3. The overall margin-of-sampling error is +/-3.2 percentage points. Error margins are higher for subgroups.
Tune into our Podcast — Real Polling in Real Time with Zogby — this week to dive in more.
