Final Poll Conducted Over the Weekend Through Monday Afternoon
John Zogby Strategies’ Election Eve poll of New Jersey likely voters in the race for Governor reveals that Democrat Mikie Sherrill leads Republican Jack Ciattarelli 55% to 43.4% with 1.6% going with one of the minor party candidates.
Sherrill holds 95% of Democratic voters, while Ciattarelli’s support is strong with 91% of Republicans. Independent voters break for Sherrill on the afternoon before the election – 54% to Ciattarelli’s 42%.
Zogby Strategies launched the poll of New Jersey likely voters on October 31 and completed it at 2 pm EST on November 3, marking a poll that fielded longer and later than its colleagues, which released their final polls on October 30 and 31. Throughout the survey’s duration, Sherrill maintained a strong lead.
Conducting the poll over the weekend and into Monday reveals the most recent trendline in this bellwether election. Notable voter trends include:
- The gender gap: Sherrill’s 27 percentage point lead among women voters, 63% to 36%; conversely, Ciattarelli leads among men, 52% to 47%.
- Married vs. non-married voters: Ciattarelli leads married New Jersey voters 51% – 48%, which is an underperformance for a Republican candidate, while Sherrill commands those not married (single, divorced, widowed, other) 58% to 37%.
- First-time voters in a New Jersey gubernatorial election decisively vote for Sherrill, giving her a lead of 64% to 34%.
- In addition to Ciattarelli leading among men, he also leads among white voters 51% – 48%.
In the final analysis, while Ciattarelli mobilizes conservatives, men, white voters, and rural voters, Mikie Sherrill appears to have excited liberals, women, all age groups (especially those under 45), first-time voters, and independent voters – leaving her with a significant lead as we go into Election Day tomorrow.
The John Zogby Strategies online poll of 1,205 New Jersey likely voters in the gubernatorial election has a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points and was conducted from October 31 to November 3, 2025.
For a more detailed look at crosstabs, click here.
