Beyond the Horse Race, Chapter 2 Summary
John Zogby recently released the book “Beyond the Horse Race, How to Read Polls and Why We Should.” Here we take a look at what is discussed in Chapter 2.
Chapter 2 proceeds with a very candid overview by John Zogby of the cardinal truths that must underpin each good sample and lead to the proper questions when trying to poll. He does this by first noting the evolution in polling methodology from the dominance of landline telephones to today’s hybrid techniques which would include online polling, text messaging, and live calls. Zogby emphasizes that it is much more complicated nowadays-for instance, the response rate to telephone calls is now 2-3% because of cells, telemarketing calls, and spam calls.
The chapter said that public opinion surveys are polling is seen as both an art and a science. That’s what good pollsters do: it’s part of the weighting to make sure the samples are representative of the diversities in younger voters and people of color and households of lower incomes. Zogby explains how his company combines qualitative research techniques with quantitative methods, which include probability sampling, for better polling results.
He also emphasizes reading crosstabs, those are tables that break down the polling data into demographic groups, showing how different populations think and feel.
He continued by describing with examples of how online polling is increasingly a centerpiece for better response rates and better representation for groups like Black and Latino voters; he described also how many Zogby polls push deeper feelings and beliefs driving public opinion by using values-based questions.
Key Lessons from Chapter 2:
Adapting to new technologies: Innovative methods for the conduct of surveys must be employed by the pollsters to grasp correct data. Since the world is getting out of the mold of landline telephone surveys, independently owned firms like Zogby Strategies have developed a bit more creative ways to contact respondents.
What matters is weighting, he said, weighting a sample properly, to reflect those demographic changes. Zogby added that the weights are factored into the Zogby polls in an attempt to ensure it reflect actual voter turnout.
People, not numbers: A poll addresses real people who have lives, concerns, and emotions. The questionnaires should frame questions relating and speaking to the respondents to touch on issues they really care about, rather than speculative or hypothesized questions, or worse still, insipid neutrals.
Not Afraid of New Tricks: Zogby says, “Pollsters shouldn’t be afraid to try new polling techniques, even when it breaks old habits.” And such flexibility has helped keep Zogby Strategies competitive with polling industry leaders-from online focus groups to invitations by text message, they have tried it all.
The following chapter serves as a hands-on guide that should be followed by every pollster and every campaign manager to reinforce the idea that polling is more than an exercise in number-crunching; it is actually an exercise in understanding people and asking the right questions that allow meaningful insight.
