KEY FINDINGS
- Democrat El-Sayed leads in the two-way race for Michigan Senator by 2 percentage points.
- The Democratic coalition for El-Sayed comes from Democrats, women, Hispanics, Blacks, voters under 30, and the Union vote. Rogers’ coalition is strongest among men, whites, Generation X, Boomers+, and veterans.
- El-Sayed voters show greater strength of support with 71% citing strong support vs. 57% among Rogers’ voters.
- The top issue is by far and away inflation and affordability cited by 53%, followed by jobs and the economy (31%). Healthcare comes in a close third place (27%).
- 38% Michigander voters approve of President Trump’s job in the oval office vs. 62% who disapprove. While, the President has likened the Midterms to him being on the ballot, his high disapproval rating appears to have little effect in what is clearly a race down to the wire.
- The poll was conducted online by John Zogby Strategies from October 31 – November 2, 2026 among 1,001 likely voters/already voted and has an overall margin-of-sampling error of +/-3.2 percentage points.
- In another battleground state, our poll last week in Ohio fielded October 21 – 22. In the first day of polling, before the Ramaswamy attack ad against Acton went live, our polling showed the two candidates locked in a dead heat. Following the ad’s rise to state and national attention, Democrat Amy Acton pulled ahead of Republican Vivek Ramaswamy 52% to 44%.
Pollster Jeremy Zogby, Michigan is the nation’s quintessential battleground race exemplifying the national competition of Socialism vs. MAGA. El-Sayed’s messaging aimed at redistributing wealth from the political class (“money out of politics and into your pocket”) vs. the MAGA message to stop the specter of Socialism has Michiganders split in a competitive race.
Click HERE for crosstabs
Head to Head Results: Overall & Demo Breakout
| El-Sayed | Rogers | |
| Overall | 51% | 49% |
| Independents | 49% | 51% |
| Democrats | 94% | 6% |
| Republicans | 5% | 95% |
| Men | 46% | 54% |
| Women | 55% | 45% |
| White | 45% | 55% |
| Hispanic | 61% | 39% |
| Black | 84% | 16% |
| 18 – 29 | 74% | 26% |
| 30 – 44 | 53% | 47% |
| 45 – 64 | 46% | 54% |
| 65+ | 46% | 54% |
| College Degree | 48% | 52% |
| No College Degree | 53% | 47% |
| Upper MI | 57% | 43% |
| Central MI | 45% | 55% |
| West MI | 53% | 47% |
| Detroit Metro | 54% | 46% |
| Union | 60% | 40% |
| Veteran | 43% | 57% |
| Parent w/ Young | 49% | 51% |
*Percentages are rounded and therefore do not always add up to 100
Strength of Candidate Vote
| Strongly in Favor | Somewhat in Favor | |
| El-Sayed | 71% | 29% |
| Rogers | 57% | 44% |
Top Deciding Voter Issues
| % Cited by Voters | |
| Inflation | 53% |
| Jobs & economy | 31% |
| Healthcare | 27% |
| Taxes & budget | 16% |
| Immigration & border | 13% |
| The Iran war | 12% |
| Crime & safety | 11% |
*Only lists issues cited 10% or higher
President’s Approval Rating – Overall Job & Signature Issues
| Approve | Disapprove | Net | |
| Job as President | 38% | 62% | -24 |
| Handling Immigration | 46% | 53% | -7 |
| Handling Crime | 44% | 53% | -9 |
| Tariffs | 36% | 63% | -27 |
Candidate Expected to Better Handle Top Issues
| El-Sayed | Rogers | |
| Cost of living | 50% | 43% |
| The economy | 50% | 45% |
| Healthcare | 53% | 41% |
| Immigration | 47% | 45% |
| Crime | 46% | 47% |
