Recently, on October 16th, NPR released its presidential poll results and swing state map. The document included plenty of fascinating details about voters in the most tightly-contested areas of this election season. It may not be a Zogby presidential poll, but we can learn a thing or two by taking a closer look at these results.
NPR did a deep dive on the evolving 2024 presidential contest and how important the swing states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia will be. These are crucial battlegrounds because their voters go one way, and that may be all the difference it takes for Donald Trump to win or Kamala Harris. Polling data shows these areas are near deadlocked, with each candidate a few points apart from the others, and considerable uncertainty remains as Election Day draws nearer.
Among other central themes, the article focused on how voter concerns about the economy are affecting polling numbers. In many of the swing states, inflation and economic instability still top the list of concerns. The voters in these states, in particular, have started to feel the rising costs pinch and are shaping their decisions in that light. Trump’s messages of economic renewal and actions he pledged to take on inflation really strike deep with voters in those regions who pretty much feel disillusioned with the current state of the economy under Democratic leadership. Harris, by contrast, has emphasized making additions to present economic policy and framing the risk of a White House return by Trump.
This article also brings to light that although Harris might have an edge in a few national polls, the swing states are far more nuanced. He’s built a solid ground game in the key areas: trying to appeal to his base–rural and working-class voters, the ones who always seem to show up. Harris is trying to fire up a coalition of young people, suburban women, and people of color; constituencies she needs desperately, but which are often less reliable in terms of turnout. According to NPR, the 2024 race mirrors those previous ones in which slight shifts in voters’ choices within the swing states may presage the outcome for the nation as a whole. Both are feverishly trying to win over undecided voters and ensure their base turns out on Election Day. This analysis further elucidates that while national trends are important, it is these same battleground states that would eventually provide the result in 2024, and these areas remain highly competitive.
