New presidential polls show that the 2024 U.S. election between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump remains highly competitive. For now, the key to the election lies with economic discontent, as wide dissatisfaction over inflation and concerns about the future of the U.S. economy are at the forefront.
A YouGov/Economist poll conducted in early October has Harris currently leading Trump by a margin, showing support from 47% of respondents in comparison to Trump’s 44%. As that looks like a decent difference to give Harris an advantage, it really shows how the race remains extremely close since such a margin is well within the poll’s margin of error. With Election Day at hand, both candidates are doing everything they can to seek every possible advantage now, while several key swing states remain very much in contention and up for grabs.
A recent report from ABC News noted that voter frustration over the state of the economy has considerably grown, with an overwhelming majority of Americans freely voicing their discontent over how economic issues have been handled and dealt with by those in power. Inflation remains one of the top concerns among voters in the country, and Trump’s messaging-filled campaign promises of restoring stability to the economy and fostering growth really hit home for a substantial number of people, particularly in key battleground states important for overall electoral success. Harris is running a formidable campaign based on promising to further the same economic policies of the current administration, which has left mixed feelings and views among the public. The ABC analysis also underlined and pointed out the still wider divisions in such basic issues as healthcare, immigration, and foreign policy that keep complicating an already complicated electoral landscape. Voters feel increasingly polarized; this reflects deepening divides within the electorate.
This extremely close and competitive election may well hang on a number of pivotal factors that could weigh in on the outcome, not the least of which would be voter turnout and the existence of an undecided electorate. Younger voters, who have traditionally been a strong and reliable base for Democratic candidates in their elections, can indeed make or break this race. Economic concerns and challenges, however, may temper any enthusiasm and eagerness to act among this particular subset of voters. Harris’s campaign is working very hard to mobilize and energize this critical demographic, but if general economic discontent ultimately overwhelms the support for her comprehensive program and initiatives, there is a very real risk that Trump will benefit greatly from a shift in this key demographic. While the economy remains pre-eminent in voters’ minds, there are other salient issues that are top-of-mind for other demographics. For young women, Zogby Strategies asserts that reproductive rights can be a topping point in this election. At the same time, young men of all races are trying to come to grips with a world of frightening changes.
This race, in our minds, remains unusually fluid and dynamic, and both of the candidates face a number of obstacles and possibilities as they enter the last lap of their electioneering exercises. At this point in time, Harris enjoys a narrow lead in the national polls, reflecting her standing among the electorate as a whole; however, the political reality is that Trump has gained substantial ground in critical battleground states. What complicates matters further is the generalized discontent among voters over the state of the economy. Harris’s ability to engage voters on this issue will prove crucial before November. We hope that our Zogby presidential polls will be able to provide more insight into voter attitudes leading up to the elections.
