Beyond the Horse Race, Chapter 5 Summary
“Beyond the Horse Race, How to Read Polls and Why We Should,” is the latest book released by our founder John Zogby. Here we take a look at Chapter 5.
In Chapter 5 of Beyond the Horse Race, John Zogby does a fine job of discussing the issue of reading polls from the “bottom-up” – starting with the underlying data, such as demographic breakdowns and specific issue preferences before the top-line results. According to Zogby, that gives a much clearer and more accurate sense of what the polls really are saying, since that subtlety of who is supporting whom and why gets lost in broad polling numbers.
According to Zogby, most polls report only the top-line number, the basic support for a candidate, but that can be misleading if the deeper characteristics aren’t explored. The candidate might be ahead by a couple of points, he says, until deeper digging into the data shows that key constituent elements, such as young voters or suburban women, begin to shift the other way. These are the shifts that are important to understand how elections are really unfolding.
First, it underlines crosstabs, detailed demographic and issue-by-issue breakdowns of the polling data that indicate how important segments feel about particular questions. In other words, knowing the impact of age, income, or geography on voter preferences in a race is sometimes more valuable than knowing which contender is ahead. With such a bottom-up approach, the pollsters at Zogby Strategies enable deeper and more meaningful perceptions about voter behavior with regard to their clients.
He also uses a number of examples from his political polling services to show exactly how bottom-up analysis helped campaigns understand voter motivations and effectively target messages. Once the trend in that specific demographic was grasped, adjustments toward it could be made accordingly. For example, if a candidate were polling poorly among independent voters but positive among women, for instance, the candidate could message toward specific issues that appeal to independents while reinforcing positions that would promote support among women.
Key Lessons from Chapter 5:
Details First: The analysts add that polls are best analyzed from the bottom upwards as in, demographic and issue-based data is most useful. According to Zogby, analysts should not pay too much attention to top-line results.
Crosstabs Reveal Hidden Trends: Much information that is important to explain the behavior of voters exists in the detailed breakdowns of polling data that might not be obvious in headline numbers.
Surveys are strategic tools that have to be used to help develop the campaign strategy. They pinpoint which demographic groups are moving and why so that campaigns can efficiently target specific voter groups.
