The first time we ever heard the term October Surprise was in 1972 in the race between Nixon and McGovern. There was a feeling that Nixon would come up with some event or move that would shape the election.
In previous Octobers, we’d see lots of swinging back and forth with leads of 4 or 5 points, and while we’re seeing some swinging back and forth, it’s nowhere near the amount of movement seen in those previous elections. Will it stay this way or will the dam break the week before the election with a swing at the last minute towards one candidate or the other?
We’re in a very strange situation right now with Harris being catapulted into the spotlight, running a campaign on hope, optimism and joy. Meanwhile, Trump has run on a vision of a dystopian future with crime ridden cities, that only he can fix.
And in the middle, many moderates are torn between a perception that it’s possible Trump would be better on some economic issues, and being turned off by the anger and vitriol of his campaign.
What effect will the recent strikes at the ports have on pricing or the economy? What about the ground invasion of Lebanon? Have we already seen the October surprise? What do you think?
Have a great week and we’ll see you next time.
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