In the opening chapter of Beyond the Horse Race, John Zogby takes readers behind the scenes of the world of political polling-the good, the bad, and those missed opportunities. Drawing on actual examples, Zogby, a longtime pollster and founder of political polling company John Zogby Strategies, reveals where polling has gone right, where it has been misinterpreted, and where it has been silent when it should have spoken up. He tells stories about his career, mainly focusing on those polls in which he had been directly involved with, such as the 2000 U.S. presidential election, where his Zogby polls for Reuters and MSNBC followed neck-and-neck the taut race between George W. Bush and Al Gore.
One thing Zogby did say is that good polls are beyond the science of picking winners to give insight into the way voters deepen their behavior, think, and argue.
For example, when most pollsters were projecting a Bush blowout, Zogby’s tracking polls reflected a very tight contest. His Reuters MSNBC National 2000 Tracking Poll and the Reuters MSNBC Florida Tracking Poll 2000 reflected not just who was ahead, but how key blocs — such as women, and older voters were having second thoughts. These are some of the examples Zogby uses to illustrate the importance of “crosstabs”-detailed demographic breakdowns that show how different groups are thinking. As Zogby himself says, “The horse race is only the headline, but the real story is in how people decide, what issues drive them, and how their choices evolve over time.” It is in these details that Zogby’s polling is different, and his work is so trusted. The ability of his firm to delve into new methodologies-hybrid polling, for example, couples online nationwide surveys with more traditional methodologies like telephone survey services suggests how relevant Zogby Strategies remains within an ever-changing landscape.
He also considers how polling can go wrong, especially if it were to be misinterpreted or if certain methodologies are bad.
He cited a lot of cases when that was not so, such as the last days of the election in 1980, and just such lack of information made speculations about who won rampant. His 2000 Reuter’s/ Zogby US Post-Election poll, on the other hand, is a pretty enlightening example of how divided the electorate had been about the legitimacy of election results, catching very few pollsters.
Lessons learned from Chapter 1:
Poll to the Very Last Minute: Zogby emphasizes the importance of polling on Election Day. It is the last-minute changes in voters’ minds that usually prove to be decisive, and most polls conducted well in advance of the election tend to miss this shift.
Dig into Crosstabs: Top-line numbers seldom give the full story. Zogby reinforces just how important it is to mine deep into crosstabs to understand voters’ behavior and motivations across demographics.
Bad Polling Practices: Zogby warns against the unreliability of polling and misinterpretations. He said that even the most respected polling firms sometimes misuse the data in political posturing. Reliable polling would require, for instance, samples being selected with great care, and weighing accurately done to Zogby polls.
Not All About Elections: Zogby also discussed his international work and some of the challenges to polling in places like Israel, Mexico, and Tunisia, which further drive home the point that while good principles of polling apply, cultural and political contexts do change.
The rest of the book falls into place with this chapter as Zogby embarks on the in-depth analysis of polling strategies and how his company, Zogby Strategies, changed with each new challenge. Beyond the Horse Race offers a chance to understand the true power of good polls and why we should take them seriously for anyone who wants to understand the nuances of public opinion-be it in political polling companies or in the agencies that carry on with market research.
