Beyond the Horse Race, Chapter 7 Summary
The chapter 7 of the recently released book by John Zogby, “Beyond the Horse Race, How to Read Polls and Why We Should,” is devoted to polling failures, which Zogby describes as “The Ones That Got Away.” It is here that he acknowledges that even the best sometimes get it wrong. The chapter is a reflective look at a number of cases in which polls did not predict the outcome of elections that Zogby uses to describe both why polling errors occur and how pollsters and opinion research firms can learn from their mistakes.
Zogby enumerates several elections when polling results did not match the final outcome. Many times this was because opinion changed at the eleventh hour, important constituencies were misrepresented, or there were flawed methodologies. He further expounds that polling is, in its very nature, a chancy science, particularly in volatile elections in which voter feelings can make an about-face with incredible dispatch. These failures provide important lessons for future polls and the continuing need for refinement and adjustment of methods.
Zogby says one of the major problems with polling is an inability to project undecideds, or swing voters, who may make their decision in the last days or even hours before the election. He goes on further to explain weighting and adjusting the samples as a means of accurately representing the true electorate because if there is a poor representation in certain groups, the findings reflect that.
Key Takeaway from Section 7:
Polling Isn’t Rocket Science: It’s a predictive science with a core inherent uncertainty; that is what Zogby reminds the reader. Nobody can create a perfect poll, and no perfectly crafted survey can capture late shifts or significant blocks of voters.
Learning from Mistakes: The art of learning from past polling failures, and continuous refinement of methodology, is what pollsters must seek to attain.
One should not underestimate the undecided voters: sudden changes in the attitudes of the electorate, especially among undecided voters, radically alter the outcome of elections; therefore, pollsters must take such volatility into consideration.
