Why Independent Voters Declare Their Independence from the Major Parties
A deep-dive into the minds of a silent but powerful voting bloc and how they play a major role in elections as we reach the apex of the hyper polarization cycle.
The Hero Generation & The Great Rebuild
There are times when a pollster has to set aside opinion data and make a judgment based on other available facts and trends. I believe that’s necessary to fully grasp what is likely ahead as we enter this consequential summer.
Staggering Data that Should Make the Political Class Reconsider Its Tribal Messaging and Strategies
Ever wonder what the consequences of long-term political warfare messaging are for voters? This article goes beyond typical polling data and looks at the expectations and viability of national unity over time. And what some voters are doing about it. The numbers that follow come from a recent John Zogby Strategies national survey of 1,000…
Neither Party Has a Playbook for This: A Data-Driven Narrative on Where It’s All Headed
This follow-up piece zooms in on our sixth and current cycle—the Polarization Surge (2004 – 2024), synthesizing a macro view of election history, recent poll tracking, and a clear understanding of events that have unfolded since 2024. The subsequent analysis and insights look beyond who will win the Midterms and offer a clear picture of where American…
Independents – Voters Neither Party Gets
An in-depth look at a dynamic group that recently made history and will continue to alter the political landscape. Here’s how and why.
The War in Iran Number That Should Alarm Both Parties
Among parents with children 17 and under — a consequential swing cohort heading into November — President Trump’s handling of the Iran conflict has become a major issue where disapproval has outpaced approval. That number alone has political strategists on both sides paying attention.
Will 2026 Midterm Voter Turnout Surge or Cave?
Looking closely at every national election both Midterm and Presidential going back to our founding, I’ve identified 6 major voter turnout cycles characterized by surges and collapse, including details on the driving forces behind each. Taking the long view of history (via a swift comprehensive chart) allows us to go deeper beyond analysis offering greater…
Voter Profiles You Should Know Series 1: Parents with Young Kids
A couple of weeks ago, while on a walk with an elder neighbor, the well-to-do retired Attorney told me, “I think parents your age with children have it the most difficult I’ve seen in my life.” It was a kind and rare gesture to acknowledge what parents face today, which can be described as somewhere…
Two Charts Signal A Global Revolution Ahead
The President’s decision to blockade the Strait of Hormuz feels a bit like a David-and-Goliath showdown. It is likely to have decisive consequences for the establishment of a world order. The interests of too many nations, large and small, are tied up in this one spot. While there are numerous potential outcomes, the main one…
From Trump’s Winning Coalition 2.0 Back to 1.0
A close look at President Trump’s collapse of approval ratings among bellwether voting groups that helped carry him to victory and where they stand today.